USDA estimates 2017/18 Bangladesh rice production at 33.0 million metric tons (milled basis), down 1 percent from last month, and down 5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 4.38 metric tons per hectare, down slightly from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 11.3 million hectares, down nearly 2 percent from last month and down 4 percent from last year. The area decrease is attributed to monsoonal rains since June that caused flooding across the major rice areas of Dhaka and Rajshahi. The excessive rains impacted the Aus and Aman crops, which account for roughly 50 percent of the total rice crop. In 2015 excessive rains occurred as well, but earlier in August and in different areas of the country.
Heavy rains have persisted since May and cumulative rainfall is 78 percent higher than the longterm average for the country. The Bangladesh Department of Disaster reported that 600,000 hectares have been flooded in over 32 districts. They have also reported that several areas have been impacted by landslides in the major rice areas. Although the government has provided financial incentives to replant, farmers say it’s too late to plant rice this season. The monsoon is beginning to retreat and is forecast to end in mid-October. Daily rainfall is beginning to return to the long-term normal. Rice is grown throughout the year. The growing seasons are comprised of the Boro which is the largest crop that accounts for about 50 percent of production, followed by the Aus and Aman crop.
USDA estimates China’s 2017/18 corn production at 215.0 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, down 4.55 mmt or 2 percent from last year. Projected area of 35 million hectares is unchanged from last month but down 5 percent from last year. Area has shown a downward trend in recent years, particularly in the Northeast, as reductions in government support for corn has increased profitability for alternative crops such as soybeans. Yield is forecast at a record 6.14 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, and up 3 percent from last year. Despite unseasonably warm and localized dry weather during April through June, satellite data indicated favorable soil moisture conditions across the major corn-producing provinces in northeast China and the North China Plain. Abnormally dry conditions may have slowed planting and early crop development in some regions including Henan (9 percent of total corn production), Liaoning (7 percent), Hebei (8 percent), Inner Mongolia (9 percent), as well as parts of Jilin (13 percent), and Shandong (10 percent). Timely rainfall, however, during reproduction improved conditions and re-enforced record yield estimates. In September, analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service conducted crop assessment travel in Liaoning, Shandong, and Anhui provinces when the crop was at physiological maturity and ready to be harvested. The crop conditions were favorable across the region with aboveaverage yield expectations. Farmers indicated that harvest is expected to be completed by midOctober in time for wheat planting. Last year’s poor corn prices resulted in a significant area shift from corn to soybean across the major corn regions.