Getting stronger, but tensions are rising

Key messages

•The expansion is set to continue and strengthen
• Trade and private investment are bouncing back
• New fiscal stimulus in the United States and Germany will further boost short-term growth
• Inflation is set to rise slowly
• Interest rate normalisation may create tensions, with high debt and asset prices key vulnerabilities
• An escalation of trade tensions would be damaging for growth and jobs
• Structural and fiscal policies should focus on improving medium-term inclusive growth