China’s Meat and Poultry Import Forecast 2018:

Decline and Constrained Growth China’s beef and broiler meat imports are forecast to rise 11 and 7 percent, respectively, in 2018. Despite robust Chinese demand coupled with stagnant or declining production, additional growth in imports is constrained by restrictions which limit supplies from the United States, a key global trader. The United States is currently not eligible to export broiler meat to China due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) restrictions. 1 Even though the United States regained access to China’s beef market in May 2017, shipments are likely to be constrained in the short term due to market requirements which limit the ability of the United States to maximize trade opportunities. China is the world’s second and seventh largest beef and broiler meat importer, respectively, accounting for 13 and 5 percent of forecast trade. Alternatively, China’s pork imports are forecast to decline for the second consecutive year in 2018 as domestic production gains reduce demand of imported pork. The European Union, United States, and Canada will remain the principal suppliers, competing primarily on price. With relatively strong demand for processing, imports are unlikely to retreat to past levels, maintaining China as the world’s top importer of pork accounting for nearly one-fifth of forecast trade.

Beef and Veal

Global production is forecast to grow nearly 2 percent in 2018 to 62.6 million tons with the United States and Brazil alone accounting for about half of the growth. Brazil will be spurred by expanding exports but potentially faces headwinds from domestic industry issues. Argentina’s production will continue to be boosted by favorable policy developments and herd expansion. Having recovered from drought-induced herd liquidation followed by herd rebuilding, Australia’s beef production is rebounding.

Global exports

in 2018 are forecast nearly 3 percent higher to 10.1 million tons, driven by shipments from Brazil, Australia, Argentina, and the United States. Demand in East Asia will remain robust. China, in particular, will continue to drive trade, as domestic production cannot meet growing consumption. Oil-producing regions will continue to be challenged by relatively low oil prices, which hamper economic growth and stymie demand.

U.S. production and exports:

Production is expected up nearly 3 percent in 2018 to a record 12.4 million tons, as the United States enters the fourth year of its herd expansion. Sustained elevated supplies and lower U.S. beef prices will boost exports to Mexico, Canada, and major markets in East Asia. The United States will face renewed competition in Asian markets from Australia as its herd expands. In Japan, the United States will also have to contend with Australia’s widening tariff advantage. However, a relatively weaker U.S. dollar in 2018 could further buoy U.S. beef exports.