October 11, 2017
Recent results are consistent with gradual recovery in economic activity
- Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP (PIBIU)was unchanged on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis in August. In the quarter through August, the indicator advanced 0.9% qoq/sa. Recent growth in PIBIU is consistent with a gradual recovery in economic activity.
- Data already out for September suggest an increase in monthly GDP.
A sixth consecutive month of year-over-year gains
Our monthly GDP proxy was unchanged on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis in August. Compared to one year earlier, the indicator climbed 3.9%, marking a sixth consecutive month in positive territory under this metric. In the quarter through August, it went up 0.9% qoq/sa. Although PIBIU is still low when compared to previous years, figures for 2017 show that economic activity is gradually recovering in Brazil. The rebound is already seen in several segments of the manufacturing and retail sectors, and in the labor market as well.
The seasonally-adjusted stability of the indicator during the month is consistent with its diffusion. Six out of ten PIBIU components posted gains in August, led by industrial public services and agriculture and livestock production, up by 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. On the other end, mining and extraction fell the most during the month, by 0.9%.
Preliminary figures for September suggest an increase in PIBIU, as well as positive growth in 3Q17 in seasonally-adjusted terms.