Grain: World Markets and Trade

Sub-Saharan Africa Drives Growth in Global Wheat Imports
Global wheat trade is forecast at a record for 2017/18, with Sub-Saharan Africa projected to have
the strongest year-over-year import growth of any region. In fact, over the last decade as a
whole, Sub-Saharan Africa has been a major driver of rising global wheat trade. Stagnant
production and rapid consumption growth have been the main motivators of rising import
demand in the region. Consumption is escalating on long-term trends of urbanization, rising
incomes, and population growth. See page 5 from the November Grain: World Markets and
Trade report for more information.
This year specifically, record global production and relatively low prices have further catalyzed
import demand in Sub-Saharan Africa. Russia is an increasingly important supplier for the
region as many of these markets are primarily focused on obtaining low-priced supplies. In light
of Russia’s record crop and large exportable surplus, Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand growth has
provided an outlet to absorb some of those excess supplies. See feature article on page 6 of this
publication for more details.
After Sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the next largest projected growth in imports this year
is the Middle East. There, higher imports are offsetting Iraq’s lower crop quality and Turkey’s
diminished stocks. In contrast, the largest forecast reduction from 2016/17 is for South Asia on
account of sharply lower imports for India due to its ample 2017 harvest. Also down from the
previous year are imports for North Africa (larger crops for Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) and
South America (reduced demand in Brazil).

Fuente: Usda

Leer más Informes de:

Agro Comercio Exterior