Global Outlook – Economic Watch – October 2017

Global growth forecasts:

a more synchronized recovery Sustained momentum in global growth.

Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at around 1% QoQ in 2H17, after strengthening on the first half of the year.

Improved hard data, but still suggesting a somewhat less optimistic outlook than strong confidence surveys.

Industrial output picked up again in August, global trade recovery remains on track while retail sales point to a still resilient consumption.

Broadly unchanged global scenario: steady global growth in 2017-18

Sustained growth in the US despite the impact of hurricanes and political uncertainty.

More positive outlook for China in the short-term, but growth will moderate next year due to lower support from economic policies.

Higher growth in the Eurozone thanks to the strength of domestic demand, with very gradual increase in inflation.

Major central banks are moving towards very gradual normalization, constrained by still subdued inflation and increasing uncertainty about the medium-term.

Risks are tilted to the downside, with some rebalancing from China to the US in the short-run.

Fuente: BBVA Research

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