The global economy stabilizes at high levels reflecting a robust and synchronized pace Global growth accelerated slightly in 2Q17 to 1% QoQ, driven by US. Our BBVA-GAIN model suggest that global GDP growth could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (0,98% QoQ in Q3 and 1,0% QoQ in Q4).
Developed markets outperformed (on average) emerging markets in 2Q17 driven by the rebound in the US and a positive surprise in Europe and China. The exit from deep recessions of Russia and Brazil suggest that global growth economy is more synchronized across major blocks.
Industrial production disappointed in July failing to catch up with confidence surveys while the upward trend in exports has halted at the beginning of 3Q17. But new exports orders from PMI’s continue rising and suggest still a positive outlook for the rest of the year. The rebound in retail sales signals resilience of consumption.
Global headline inflation accelerated slightly in July mainly due to volatile components, while core measures remained mostly flat.