Global Economic Watch November 2018

Our BBVA-GAIN model keeps trending down gradually and points to a
quarterly growth rate of around 0.9% in Q4, following disappointing figures
in 3Q18.
Global: Continued soft landing with differentiations across the three
large economies
Mixed hard data in September, with increasing differences across regions: US keeps
outperforming, but growth in China and the Eurozone remains sluggish. Weak industrial
production and retail sales point to a more moderate expansion of manufacturing sector
while private consumption could lose some steam in 2H18.
Global trade has strengthened after mid-year driven by strong exports in China and emerging
Asia, but this partly reflects the frontloading of exports pre-emptively reacting to potentially
higher tariffs early next year. Trade figures were gloomier in the rest of areas.
Confidence data in October declined further, mainly in the manufacturing sector and in the
Eurozone and China, but still remain in expansionary territory. Despite supportive policies
across the board and robust domestic demand, there are increasing concerns about the
negative effects of heighted uncertainty on activity.
Core inflation has increased slightly overall, while headline measure seems to have peaked.
More recently, lower oil demand prospects and excess of supply linked to geopolitical
reasons have resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices.

Fuente: BBVA

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