Economic Outlook Macroeconomic Research

International  A tricky scenario unfolds  U.S. interest rates will continue to rise and the USD to strengthen as the Trump administration pursues expansionary policies in an economy close to full employment.  Emerging markets face the challenge of higher U.S. rates, but broader global financial conditions indicators are well behaved and provide a buffer.  Lower growth, higher risks  Third-quarter GDP figures confirmed the weakness of economic activity. We have revised our 2017 growth forecast to 1.5% (down from 2.0%). Fiscal reforms continue to move ahead, however political uncertainty has increased.  Inflation continues to fall. Our 2016 IPCA forecast has been revised to 6.5% but remains stable for 2017 at 4.8%.  The exchange rate remains close to its sustainable, or equilibrium value.  The pace of interest-rate cuts is likely to increase (to 50 bps per meeting) in January.

Fuente: Itau

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