Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America

We use a comprehensive methodology to characterize the confidence cycle features across a sample of LatAm
economies. First, we compute various regime characteristics of consumer mood through a conventional univariate
Markov-switching model and identify common ground for assessing confidence-cycle similarities among LatAm
economies, while examining country lead and lag patterns during aggregate mood shifts. Second, we extend the
analysis to a bivariate regime-switch model to deal  with synchronisation measures for consumer mood across country pairs. Overall, our findings show that a core group, given by Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, tends to share a statistical common ground for both confidence boom and bust cycle synchronisation. Notably Argentina and Chile systematically tend to lead consumer mood shifts in the region. On average, these two countries seem to play a leading role in propagating the consumer confidence shocks throughout LatAm.

Fuente: BBVA Research

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Economía Internacional