- The Energy Outlook considers the energy transition from three different viewpoints (sectors, regions and fuels) and by exploring a number of different scenarios.
- In the Evolving Transition scenario, world GDP more than doubles by 2040, driven by increasing prosperity in fast-growing emerging economies, as more than 2.5 billion people are lifted from low incomes.
- This rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand, although the extent of this growth is offset by accelerating gains in energy efficiency: energy demand increases by only around one third over the next 25 years.
- Industrial demand for energy accounts for around half of the increase in energy consumption; growth in transport demand slows sharply relative to the past.
- The world continues to electrify, with almost 70% of the increase in primary energy going to the power sector.
- The share of vehicle kilometres powered by electricity increases, as the number of electric cars grows and they are used more intensively. The interaction of fully autonomous cars with shared mobility substantially boosts the intensity with which electric cars are driven.
- All of the growth in energy consumption is in fast-growing developing economies: China and India account for half of the growth in global energy demand.
- Renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source, accounting for 40% of the increase in primary energy. The energy mix by 2040 is the most diversified the world has ever seen.
- Demand for oil and other liquid fuels grows over much of the Outlook, but gradually slows and plateaus in the later years of the Outlook.
- The increase in liquids production is initially dominated by US tight oil, but is late driven by OPEC, as members adopt a strategy of increasing their market share.
- Natural gas grows strongly, supported by broad-based demand and the continuing expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increasing the availability of gas globally.
- Global coal consumption flatlines, with Chinese coal demand declining.
- In the ET scenario, carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past.
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