Executive summary • In the base case, world GDP almost doubles over the Outlook driven by fast-growing emerging economies, as more than 2 billion people are lifted from low incomes. • This rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand, although the extent of this growth is substantially offset by rapid gains in energy efficiency: energy demand increases by only around 30%. • The fuel mix continues to adjust, although oil and gas, together with coal, remain the dominant sources of energy. Renewables, with nuclear and hydroelectric power, provide half of the additional energy required out to 2035. • Gas grows more quickly than oil and coal, led by US shale gas; the rapid expansion of LNG is likely to lead to a globally integrated gas market, anchored by US gas prices. • Oil demand grows throughout the Outlook, but the pace of demand slows with noncombusted use replacing transport as the main source of demand growth. • The increasing penetration of electric cars and the broader mobility revolution will have an important bearing on future oil demand. • The abundance of oil resources may prompt low-cost producers to use their competitive advantage to increase market share. • Global coal consumption looks set to peak, as the continuing reform of China’s economy causes growth in its demand for coal (and energy) to slow sharply, although China remains the largest growth market for energy. • Renewables are the fastest growing fuel source, quadrupling over the next 20 years, supported by continuing gains in competitiveness. • The world economy continues to electrify, with nearly two-thirds of the increase in global energy going into the power sector. • In our base case, carbon emissions from energy grow at less than a third of the rate of the past 20 years, reflecting gains in energy efficiency and the changing fuel mix. But emissions continue to rise, highlighting the need for further action. • The uncertainty around the base case is explored in three alternative cases: a faster mobility revolution; alternative pathways to a lower-carbon energy system; and risks to gas demand.
Key energy questions • Will global energy demand continue to increase? Has the link between economic growth and increases in energy demand been broken? (see pages 12 to 19) • How quickly will the global energy mix evolve? (see pages 14 to 15) • How will electric cars and new mobility technologies impact oil demand? (see pages 46 to 49, 72 to 75) • How will the behaviour of low-cost oil producers change in a world of abundant oil resources and slowing oil demand? (see pages 50 to 53) • How fast do we expect natural gas to grow? What is driving this and what could cause gas demand to grow less strongly? (see pages 32 to 35, 54 to 57, 82 to 85) • Will coal demand peak in the next 20 years? (see pages 36 to 37) • How will China’s economic transition impact global energy demand? (see pages 58 to 61) • How might a faster transition to a lower carbon energy system change global energy markets? (see pages 76 to 81)