This year’s OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB), which is comprised of data up to the end of 2016, reveals the following important facts:
In 2016, world crude oil production inched up by 0.35m b/d or 0.5 per cent as compared to 2015, to reach 75.48m b/d, marking a seventh consecutive year of growth. The majority of non-OPEC countries registered substantial declines in their 2016 average crude production, as compared to 2015. The biggest declines were for the United States, –0.54m b/d or –5.7 per cent and China, –0.31m b/d or –7.2 per cent. In 2016, the top three crude oil producing countries were Saudi Arabia (10.46m b/d), Russia (10.29m b/d) and the United States (8.88m b/d).
World oil demand averaged at 95.12m b/d in 2016, up by 1.5 per cent year-on-year, with the largest increases in Asia and Pacific, particularly China and India, Western Europe, North America and Africa. 2016 oil demand in the Middle East remained flat year-on-year, while oil demand declined in Latin America for the second year in a row. Total OECD oil demand grew solidly for the second consecutive year in 2016, while oil demand in OPEC Member Countries declined for the first time since 1999, dropping by 0.20m b/d or 2.2 per cent, as compared to 2015, mainly as a result of declining oil demand in Venezuela, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia and IR Iran. Distillates and gasoline account for around 56 per cent of 2016 total world oil demand and are on increasing trends. Residual fuel oil requirements share in 2016 total oil demand amounts roughly to seven per cent, with requirements marking yearly gains for the first time since 2004. Gasoline dominates 2016 oil demand growth in Asia and Pacific and North America, while distillates are robust in Western and Eastern Europe. The 2016 OPEC Member Countries’ demand remained robust only in relation to residual fuel and declined for all other main petroleum categories, notably gasoline and distillates.
Total exports of crude oil of OPEC Member Countries stood at 25.01m b/d in 2016 from 23.49m b/d in 2015. This increase represents a 6.5 per cent growth on a year-on-year basis. As in previous years, the bulk of crude oil from OPEC Members was exported to the Asia and Pacific region, 15.72m b/d or 62.9 per cent. Significant volumes of crude oil were also exported to North America, which increased its imports from OPEC Members from 2.81m b/d in 2015 to 3.29m b/d in 2016. Europe imported 4.21m b/d of crude oil from OPEC Members, 2.5 per cent less as compared to 2015 volumes. OPEC Members’ exports of petroleum products averaged 5.29m b/d during 2016, up by 0.90m b/d or 20.5 per cent as compared to 2015. OPEC Members’ imports of petroleum products stood at 2.06m b/d in 2016, roughly 0.15m b/d, or 6.7 per cent lower than in 2015.
Total world proven crude oil reserves stood at 1,492bn b at the end of 2016, increasing slightly by 0.3 per cent from the previous year’s level of 1,488bn b. The largest additions came from Iraq, Venezuela and Norway. Total OPEC Members’ proven crude oil reserves increased 0.5 per cent to 1,217bn b at the end of 2016, with a share of 81.5 per cent of total world crude oil reserves. In 2016, proven natural gas reserves increased by 0.4 per cent at approximately 200.5 trillion standard cu m. This increase in natural gas reserves came on the back of new discoveries in the Middle East and Africa, almost solely relating to OPEC Members. World refinery capacity expanded by 0.45m b/cd to stand at 97.37m b/cd at the end of 2016, mainly supported by additions in North America and the Middle East, as well as Asia and Pacific regions. In the Middle East, expansions came from OPEC Members, while the United States, China and South Korea accounted for additions in North America and Asia and Pacific. 2016 refinery capacity in the OECD grew for the second consecutive year, mainly due to gains in the United States. Global refinery throughput ramped up by 1.7 per cent to reach 81.94m b/d in 2016 with largest gains in the Asia and Pacific and the Middle East. In the Middle East, the gains in refinery throughput originated in OPEC Member Countries. India, China and South Korea dominated the gains in the Asia and Pacific region. The OPEC Reference Basket averaged at $40.76/b in 2016, down from $49.49/b in 2015 and reaching the lowest yearly average since 2004. The yearly decline valued at $8.73/b or 17.6 per cent as compared to 2015. The 2016 volatility stood at $7.28/b or, equivalently, 17.9 per cent relative to the yearly average. The oil market remained mostly in contango since the 2H2014.