Brazil has the higher changes of winning, followed by Germany and Argentina.
During the next few weeks, billions will direct their eyes toward Russia, the country hosting the 2018 World Cup. As in past tournaments, we did an exercise to estimate which national teams will likely stand out.
We built our model on results for each match in past World Cups, starting in 1994. To estimate the probability of victory by a team in a given match, we considered factors such as current quality of players, tradition and fan support.
Based on our model, we believe Brazil has the higher changes of winning, followed by Germany and Argentina.