OilSeeds: World Market and Trade

Global olive oil production in 2017/18 is forecast to rise to 2.7 million tons, recovering slightly from last year. However, reports of unfavorable growing conditions in the European Union indicate production will be lower than previously forecast. Spain, the world’s largest producer of olive oil, is expecting a lower crop, down 10 percent year-over-year due to poor rainfall. This is likely to be offset by growth in other producers. Portugal is forecast to achieve record production as trees that were planted in 2004 are now bearing fruit. Italy is forecast to produce 320,000 tons of olive oil, with end of September rains occurring in Puglia, the main producing region, ensuring a high-quality product. Tunisia is forecast to have above-average production with good rainfall in September, and Turkey is likely to see production growth with young trees starting to bear fruit.
Global stocks are likely to tighten further, reaching their lowest level in the past 5 years, as global consumption remains strong and continues to closely follow output levels. Prices have climbed steadily from June 2016 to May 2017, after a major decline in late 2015, and have stabilized over the last few months. Even with higher production, tightening of stocks has helped push prices back to early 2015 levels. Olive oil is a premium product and demand is
expected to remain strong despite higher prices stemming from lower stocks and smaller- thananticipated
production.
In 2017/18 global exports are expected to increase almost 5 percent. Despite limited production growth, the European Union is projected to maintain its exports at a relatively high level, yet below last year. The European Union is likely to lower its consumption of olive oil, replacing it with more sunflowerseed and rapeseed oils. The United States will continue to be the largest importer of olive oil, and the second-largest consumer. Although the European Union is the United States’ largest supplier, lower EU production, may force U.S. imports to be sourced from other countries such as Tunisia and Turkey

Fuente: USDA

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