Mid-term elections in Argentina, how Congress might turn out to look like?

Having the Mandatory Primary mid-term elections due on August 13 as a preview to the ”real ones” coming up on October 22, polls are indicating that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) might come out favorably in the Province of Buenos Aires (PBA). They mention her getting around 35% of votes on average, while Macri’s candidate with Cambiemos, Esteban Bullrich, obtaining 32% and Sergio Massa with 22%.

 While not ignoring the relevance of PBA (37% of electorate), at the national level Cambiemos will be getting more votes and gain presence in both houses of Congress, although quite short of control. We should expect, therefore, important fragmentation and no automatic alignments, particularly within the Peronist party/ies. Negotiations around the heavy agenda of issues to tackle could turn difficult with relevant variations of perceived allegiances from case to case. In this light, having some leading moral edge would help as well as governors could exert some influence.

 The outcome in PBA will bear influence in the leading moral edge, but also create resistances in some other jurisdictions quite opposed to CFK regardless of the party but also trying to extract a price from Cambiemos being in charge at the Federal Executive.

 24 out of the 72 Senate and 127 of the Lower House seats are up for elections. The following tables have the Lower House and Senate current breakdown and the seats at stake. We note that, proportionally, UNA (Masa) at the House level and FPV/PJ (CFK) are the ones with more at risk, while Cambiemos’ share is also not low in the Chamber of Deputies.

Fuente: Quantum & Econométrica

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