Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP declines 0.4% in January

Monthly slide was driven by industrial production and services

• Itaú Unibanco’s monthly GDP (PM-Itaú) [1] declined 0.4% mom/sa in January. In the quarter ended in January, our indicator expanded 0.4% vs. the quarter ended in October.

• For February, based on already released coincident indicators, we forecast, for the time being, a gain of 1.2% mom/sa in PM-Itaú.

Monthly slide was driven by industrial production and services

Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP fell 0.4% mom/sa in January, while rising 1.1% yoy. In the quarter ended in January, our indicator expanded 0.4% vs. the quarter ended in October.

According to census bureau IBGE, industrial production and real revenues from services receded in January. Retail sales posted a mildly positive result, with a small drop in the broad measure (which will likely be revised upward after a new seasonal adjustment in the series) and an increase in core retail sales.

Breaking down PM-Itaú by components, 8 out of 13 indicators that form the monthly index posted declines. Some segments covered by the Monthly Service Survey presented noteworthy drops: transportation, information services and “other services” fell 1.9%, 0.8% and 0.4% mom/sa, respectively.

For February, based on already released coincident indicators, we forecast, for the time being, a hike of 1.2% mom/sa in PM-Itaú.
It is worth noting that we revised our monthly economic activity indicator at the end of 2017. The revised series is more closely correlated to the quarterly GDP published by IBGE. For the complete methodology, please refer to the report Revision of Itaú Unibanco’s Monthly GDP series.

 

Artur Manoel Passos

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