Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas
The global outlook remains positive.
Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in 2Q17, slightly higher than in the previous quarter, with signs of stabilization.
Stronger growth in China has supported the recovery of trade and investment. Across advanced economies there is some rebalancing from the US towards Europe.
Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. The rebound in retail signals the resilience of consumption.
Our new GDP forecasts for 2017-18 show some changes by areas. The Eurozone and China are revised upwards while US is revised downwards.
Inflation remains subdued in a context of restrained wage pressures and weaker than expected oil prices.
Major central banks in a process of very gradual normalization, while liquidity will be reduced.
Risks remain tilted to the downside, easing in the US and Europe but unabated in China.