The Energy Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key
uncertainties surrounding that transition.
The Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions of what is
likely to happen or what BP would like to happen. Rather, they explore the possible implications of
different judgements and assumptions by considering a series of “what if” experiments. The scenarios
consider only a tiny sub-set of the uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2040; they do not
provide a comprehensive description of all possible future outcomes.
For ease of explanation, much of the Outlook is described with reference to the ‘Evolving Transition’
scenario. But that does not imply that the probability of this scenario is higher than the others. Indeed,
the multitude of uncertainties means the probability of any one of these scenarios materializing exactly
as described is negligible.
The Energy Outlook is produced to aid BP’s analysis and decision-making, and is published as a
contribution to the wider debate. But the Outlook is only one source among many when considering the
future of global energy markets. BP considers the scenarios in the Outlook, together with a range of
other analysis and information, when forming its long-term strategy.